Analysing previous genres to predict this year’s Eurovision winner.

Date published: 24th Apr 2023

The 67th Eurovision Song Contest will be held in the city of Liverpool this summer, as the UK hosts the competition on behalf of last year’s winners, Ukraine. Starting on the ninth of May, music fans across the globe will ascend upon Merseyside to watch 37 countries battle it out to be declared 2023’s Eurovision winner. 

This is the ninth time the UK has hosted the biggest song contest in Europe, with the last time being 25 years ago in 1998. After a long wait, the nation is excited to be home to this year’s Eurovision competition, and Liverpool especially is gripped by Eurovision fever.

As experts on live events, especially in the music scene, we wanted to discover who is most likely to win Eurovision this year. By analysing all previous winning songs using different metrics such as genre, track length, key and BPM, we’ve discovered the potential winning formula for a Eurovision hit. So, which act and country is most likely to take the crown?

Top 10 countries and songs most likely to win Eurovision 2023

Full table available below

 

Luck of the Irish: Ireland most likely to win Eurovision 2023

With seven previous wins under the nation’s belt, the Dublin indie-rock band, Wild Youth are set to represent Ireland this year and according to our calculations, they are most likely to win. Pop is the music genre that has won the most times (hardly surprising, as it does stand for popular after all), only 18 Eurovision-winning songs have been from a genre other than pop. 

Holding the record for the most wins by a single country, Ireland last won the competition in 1996 with Eimer Quinn’s - The Voice. This year, Ireland’s pop entry has a runtime of 03:03 and seven previous winning Eurovision songs were also three minutes and three seconds long…

 

Netherlands likely to take second place

Winning the competition five times previously, the Netherlands are on track for second place according to our 2023 predictions. Their track this summer has a near-perfect runtime (just one second longer than the magic 03.03) and as it is the ever-favourite pop genre, our index ranks Mia Nicolai and Dion Cooper’s - Burning Daylight, as most likely to take silver. 

 

Latvia completes the top three   

Despite only having one previous win under their belt from 2002, Latvia is most likely to earn third-place in the Eurovision this year according to our predictions. The pop track ‘Sudden Lights’ performed by Aij? has a favourable run time and is in the key A Minor, most Eurovision winning songs were also in this key.

 

 

Top of the pops (literally)

Occupying nine out of the top ten, the most likely winning track for this year’s Eurovision are all pop songs. 70% of the previous winning songs have also been pop, making this the clear favourite genre in the competition. Pop is often upbeat and as Eurovision is a celebration of European music it makes sense for this genre to dominate the competition. 

 

The winning Eurovision genre in every country

Our study also revealed every country's winning Eurovision genre by analysing their past wins.

Pop takes the top spot once again with 20 out of 26 countries (76%) having popular, crowd-pleasing music as their lucky genre. Countries across Europe including the likes of France Italy, Sweden, Norway and Turkey are more likely to win with a pop song in the 2023 contest.

In the UK, 80% of wins are thanks to a pop song, while in Ireland it was a close call between pop and folk as they boast a number of wins for different genres. Both the UK and Ireland have entered pop numbers for 2023, increasing their winning chances.

Finland is most likely to win with a metal song thanks to Lordi’s 2006 win with Hard Rock Hallelujah, clashing with their hip-hop entry this year.

Spain has gone with the world’s favourite entry - pop, but according to our research their charmed genre is Folk, while Ukraine is the only country to have a rock song as their lucky anthem and as luck has it, they are only one of five countries to submit a rock song this time around. 

Schlager, a type of European popular music focused on love and feelings (hinting again that pop is the core of Eurovision) also hit the top spot for Germany who this year have chosen a metal hit.

 

Three is a magic number

As mentioned, the lucky track time seems to be three minutes and three seconds, with most winning songs running for this long. Other notable findings were 38% of all Eurovision-winning songs having a BPM of 100-139 and A Minor being the most common key for a winning anthem. 

As the UK prepares to host this year’s Eurovision, one thing we can guarantee is a weekend of unforgettable performances and undeniable talent. This year’s winner remains to be seen, but may the most popular (urm, we mean, best) act win! 

To discover what’s on across the UK’s music scene this summer from festivals to gigs, check out our guides and more to find the perfect event for you.

 

The countries and songs most likely to win Eurovision 2023

 

Methodology

To forecast the most likely Eurovision winners of 2023, all previous winners for the past 40 years were recorded and analysed based on a number of factors including number of past wins and analysis into the song's genre, BPM, Key, and length of the song.

Previous winner data was used from https://eurovisionworld.com/eurovision 

Song analysis was used from https://www.chosic.com/music-genre-finder 

Any similarities between multiple previous winners were scored and awarded to the list of new song entries for 2023 (source: https://eurovisionworld.com/eurovision/songs-videos) to calculate which countries had the highest chance of winning based on the listed ranking factors.

 

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Header image credit: BBC/Eurovision Song Contest